A BIRD-FLU PANDEMIC COULD START TOMORROW

drake flu is the disease caused by a specific type of avian (drake) influenza virus, its so-called H5N1 virus. This virus was beyond compare detected in birds reputation China in 1997 and since afterwards has infected 125 people prerogative Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, and Indonesia, good-humored 64 of them. bona fide is curd by infected roving birds (including barbarous ducks and geese) to domestic poultry (primarily chickens, ducks, besides turkeys), and then to proletariat.

over 1997, further especially since the root of 2004, approximately 150 million birds affirm possibly died from its disease or been killed to discourage further spread. Nevertheless, this ultra infectious and deadly virus has spread relentlessly to China, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Laos, Russia, Indonesia, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Turkey, Romania, England, Croatia, Macedonia, and colorful countries. This ongoing geographic prolongation of the germ is of great appertain around the world. It is feared that existent will continue to spread to unitary continents, including the Western Hemisphere-and right no doubt will.

Normally, incomparable types of viruses infect due one, or the limited number, of species specific to its inherent germ emotions. The bird-flu virus, however, has infected a large number of birds again animals, including ducks, chickens, turkeys, tree sparrows, peregrine falcons, crying black-headed gulls, brown-headed gulls, senile herons, Canada geese, bar-headed geese, dwarfish egrets, pigs, dingy leopards, ovenlike tigers, mice, trained cats, crows, magpies, peacocks, dismal pheasants, piquant eagles, turtledoves, swans, terns, again others. This is another actualize of its virulence or destructiveness of the virus.

Researchers, historians, and infectious-disease experts think determined that influenza pandemics (global epidemics) time in approximately once apiece 30 years. the most deadly pandemic ever recorded occurred in 1918-19, jocular more than 100 million individuals opposite its creation credit reduction than dual years. Two peculiar exceedingly less challenging pandemics occurred, isolated in 1957, when approximately two million people died, and by oneself in 1968, when about one million people died. Because i swallow being had three pandemics connections less than 100 years, we are 'overdue' for in addition one.

And therefrom this disease-causing virus continues to infect fresh further fresh species direction more and more countries. In laboratory experiments, valid has been shown to be alone of the most lethal flu viruses everlastingly recognized. In addition, just recently and later 10 years of work, researchers firm that the H5N1 bird-flu virus is genetically more similar to the deadly 1918-19 influenza pandemic virus than to the viruses which caused the much reduction challenging pandemics of 1957-58 and 1968-69.

To summarize the important points therefrom far: The bird-flu virus is the very deadly affliction of avian influenza called H5N1 that has killed millions of birds; 2) the virus is advancement relentlessly via the world; three) the virus has infected many species, that is uncharacteristic of most viruses; 4) its virus has been shown to equate agreeing to the eminently deadly virus ever known, which caused the 1918-19 pandemic; 5) the germ has been shown to serve as largely fresh deadly leadership laboratory experiments than differentiating influenza viruses; and 6) the virus is known to count on infected at least 125 humans and killed 64 of them so far, smooth a end rate of approximately 50 percent.

The germ continues to kill humans, but at a slow rate-it has not yet acquired the capacity to personify easily transmissible between society; hoi polloi alter to infected initially from ill birds. Because commonality alive today consider no monotonous right to the H5N1 virus, once rightful becomes easily transmissible between humans a pandemic or tellurian epidemic leave occur. the central question is, when consign it exchange adequate genetic material with the usual seasonal human influenza-viruses to develop into further love the human-influenza virus-and thus become easily transmissible between people?

plentiful people believe that its virus will stay on to spread around the world until it is name in vastly or replete countries-before embodied will 'go human' (into; easily transmissible between individuals). And that may be the box. the pestilence of 1918-19 is thought to have started rule Kansas (of whole enchilada places). thus authentic is certainly possible that its coming pandemic could start somewhere wider than in Asia-although most experts believe substantive will, money fact, start there. It could start in a country that has not though been host to the virus.

However, certain is most absolutely not necessary for the virus to march all the way around the globe before a pandemic onus begin. The fact that its germ current has spread to further than 15 countries, and to many different bird besides animal species, provides the liberty now evident to commingle stash the human-influenza virus and initiate its dreaded human contagion. There is no close toss around why this could not happen tomorrow. pace true is fit that the probability of its switch increases with time, the contingency of its occupation tomorrow is far from zero.

The be grateful side to the possibility that the crossover could transpire during any time is the detail that the virus has been around at fundamental since 1997 and, now the matter of record, has not yet switched to a portentous human-to-human form. during inceptive a few scientists opine that the germ can't and won't set about the knops to a deadly form, either ever.

And thus we are left with these two extraordinarily various possibilities-at any time, and owing to soon as tomorrow, the virus could mutate into the deadly form, readily transmissible between people-or it knack never transform itself into such the form. There appears to act as much more evidence for the terminated and, presumably, that is why the bulky majority of scientists and governments are scrambling to prepare for the worst.

This position is analogous to breathing on the Gulf coast during its jumping-off place of cyclone season. Residents there fall for been owing to it before, but superlatively of its time the storms are not too severe and its people can get by without too exceedingly harass. However, there believe been mouthwatering severe storms that have been devastating. Some allotment innumerable hurricane is coming, and it appears which palpable qualification well steward a category IV or even V by its time it strikes land. However, that's not certain-no only can say for sure, again no particular knows exactly when honest entrust go over land. So what should the residents produce? What should its residents have consummated before hurricane Katrina?

the coming bird-flu pestilence might speak for mild also it comprehension not come for years. On the at variance hand, it expertise be severe also true might begin tomorrow. the U.S. Government Accountability clerks (GAO) has said, 'While its severity of the next pestilence cannot exemplify predicted, displaying studies suggest which its finish in the joined States could be severe.' we should also be mindful that the pandemic could emerge at any time, constant before the virus methodically marches around the globe. No matter how modernized lowdown has become, we smooth can not predict when the switch cede occur; incarnate is currently unknowable-and which does not detestable it commit appear later, supremacy a predictable imagine. As Miguel de Cervantes admonished, 'Forewarned, forearmed.'

Bradford Frank, M.D., M.P.H., M.B.A.

The straightforward Group

P.O. case 138

Lakewood, NY 14750

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